2026 global macroeconomic backdrop and key fundamental drivers to watch

Key Takeaways

• Global GDP growth is projected to be moderate but resilient at around 3.3% in 2026, supported by AI investment and easing tariffs, while global inflation is expected to decline to roughly 3%.
• Major central banks, including the Fed, ECB, and BoE, are anticipated to gently ease interest rates in 2026, moving towards more accommodative monetary policy as inflation moderates, though not returning to ultra-loose settings.
• Broad commodity indices, particularly energy and industrial/precious metals, are forecast to strengthen due to geopolitical risks and steady demand, with gold expected to remain elevated, supported by easier policy and uncertainty.
• Global equities are anticipated to deliver single-digit returns with increased regional and sectoral dispersion following strong AI-led gains, with Europe improving and specific Asian emerging markets favored.